Similarly, we can calculate fair odds and probability of event B: So there is only 10.18 % probability that West Brom will keep a clean sheet against Chelsea. When we invert it, we get probability of this event. Using this method we can calculate fair odds and probability of event A: West Brom will keep clean sheet as: In our case, we have 2-way odds ( West Brom will keep a clean sheet, West Brom will not keep a clean sheet), so n = 2.įor football match with three possible outcomes ( win, draw, lose) n = 3. Where n is the number of possible outcomes. Using Margin Weights Proportional to the Odds method we can calculate Fair odds of event X with formula: Our most favourite method is Margin Weights Proportional to the Odds.įirstly, let’s denote variables Fair odds of event X as F O(X) and Bookies odds of event X as BO(X).īasically, Fair odds FO(X) are odds after we get rid of margin from Bookies odds BO(X). Thankfully, there are some methods that can help us. Why it happens?Ĭlearly, if we knew, how bookmakers create odds and how they calculate the margin, it would solve our situation. This is a big downside of this aproach that causes inaccuracies in probabilities that are calculated this way. When we sum both probabilities, we do not get 100 % as we should, when both events are complementary. Based on this aproach, West Brom will keep a clean sheet with 14.71 % probability and concede with 94.33 % probability. With very basic calculation, we can convert these numbers into implied probabilities. So bookies really favor Chelsea to score in that match. For complementary events:ĭecimal bookies odds of West Brom keeping a clean sheet are 6.8 and odds that they won’t keep a clean sheet are 1.06. So sum of probabilities of event A and event B is 100 %.ĭenote P(A) as probability of event A, and P(B) as probability of event B. There is no third event, no third possible output. There will be or there will not be a clean sheet for West Brom in that match. It means that one of those two events will happen. These two events are complementary (more about complementary events on page 7 of Probability and Statistics).
Event B: West Brom will not keep a clean shee t against Chelsea.Event A: West Brom will keep a clean sheet against Chelsea.Let’s consider two complementary events A and B: But our main focus is to use it on fantasy football. The calculator can also help you with your betting strategies, especially with value betting, where you need to find out fair odds. The odds to probability calculator will also help you calculate more complex predictions that are based on probabilities – or calculate expected outputs for FPL players. For example, it can help you compare and assess clean sheet odds for multiple teams or goalscorer odds for multiple players.
It will help you with your decision-making process about your fantasy team.
#FANTASY SPORTS CALCULATOR FREE#
Feel free to use the calculator anytime when you want to convert bookies’ odds into probabilities or find true odds (odds without the influence of a margin). We programmed our own odds to probability calculator that is very simple and easy to use. But how are those calculations done? How can we get the most accurate estimations of probabilities from bookmakers’ odds? Especially, when we talk about clean sheets. In our previews for Fantasy Premier League or Fantasy Champions League gameweeks, we often mention converting bookies’ odds to probabilities.
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